A Peek into a Mind

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Boston, Mass.: What happened to the three month cease fire that both Hamas and Islamic Jihad agreed to?

Janine Zacharia: Many Israelis never believed there was a cease-fire, especially after two attacks were carried out last week in Rosh Haayin and the settlement Ariel. After the attack in Jerusalem two nights ago, pretty much everyone here acknowledged the cease-fire or “hudna” was over. It is hard to believe that a suicide bomber could carry out such a massive attack, on behalf of both Hamas and Islamic Jihad, without the backing and knowledge of the groups’ leaderships. Today after Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Abu Shanab in the Gaza Strip, both groups announced they would no longer respect the cease-fire and have pledged to carry out more attacks.

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Be’er Sheva , Israel : Since the start of the ‘hudna’ there have been three suicide bombers who murdered 25 Israeli civilians. How many dead Israeli civilians or maybe, how many suicide bombers will it take for the Bush administration to concede that the Road Map has failed?

Janine Zacharia: I do not believe that the Bush administration will abandon the road map, even if attacks continue in the coming days and weeks. The answer is simple: As President Bush has said, the road map is the only plan Washington has for trying to forge a peace agreement, or at least manage the conflict. The administration will continue to try to resuscitate the plan, dispatch envoys, and try through encouraging rhetoric to bring the sides back to negotiations. But especially in light of what’s going on in Iraq, and the fact that part of the administration’s rationale for ousting Saddam Hussein was that it would make Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking easier, the administration is not going to be able to abandon its efforts here. It has one key problem now: Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas. He has not proven able or willing to crackdown on Hamas and Islamic Jihad, a precondition for any progress in the peace plan.

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Houston, Tex.: How are Israelis holding up following Tuesday’s murders? Is the Israeli government prepared to reoccupy the territories and do what the Palestinian Authority cannot or will not?

Janine Zacharia: Hello Houston. The front pages of Israeli papers are very graphic today — huge photographs of babies and children who were killed Tuesday night in the bus bombing. There is constant chatter on the radio about the “terror attack of the children” since so many young people were on the bus. Many here are lamenting the end of the relative calm of the past few weeks that accompanied Islamic Jihad and Hamas’s agreement to stop carrying out attacks, and they are girding for a fresh round of violence. But Israelis are resilient, getting on buses, going to markets. To answer your second question, ironically Tuesday night Israel and the Palestinians were negotiating the hand over of security control to the PA of four additional Palestinian cities. That has all now been put on hold. There is a constant heavy Israeli military presence throughout the West Bank, but I do not think you will see the same kinds of massive incursions as you saw saw last spring.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: The fact that Israel killed Ismail Abu Shanab and went into high alert indicates they know to expect retaliation. Do they believe the risk of retaliation is worth the attack? When does this cycle of violence end?

Janine Zacharia: Israel believes that these groups will attack civilians whether or not they carry out targeted killings.

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Georgia: Do the Israelis believe that Arafat is behind these bombings? Is there support in Israel for putting him into exile?

Janine Zacharia: At Sunday’s Israeli cabinet meeting, senior intelligence and defense officials said there was circumstantial evidence that Arafat was at the very least inspiring, if not directly backing, attacks. The instinct of many Israeli officials after Tuesday night’s bombing was to blame Arafat. FM Silvan Shalom said yesterday that he still believed Arafat should be exiled. But it is not a serious option considered at the moment.

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Melville, N.Y.: Will today’s retaliation by Israel escalate the violence between Israel and Hamas?

Janine Zacharia: Hi Melville. Yes I would anticipate a resumption of a steady cycle of regular suicide bombings and Israeli assassinations, unless perhaps the US can intervene quickly somehow. The special envoy John Wolf was quickly sent back here yesterday but he doesn’t seem to have the clout to fend of an uptick in the violence.

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Cary, N.C.: Are there any indications that the Palestinian Authority was seriously considering a crack down on militants prior to the killing of the senior Hamas member, or was this lip service on the part of the Palestinians knowing that surely the Israelis would retaliate?

Janine Zacharia: The Palestinian Authority made no arrests in the last few weeks of wanted militants, or fugitives as they are called. There was no crackdown by force. PM Abbas insisted that he wanted to engage Hamas and Islamic Jihad in dialogue, not through violence. But interestingly after the attacks in Rosh Ha’ayin and Ariel last week, Israel appeared to relax its demands regarding the fugitives — it said make sure they are “monitored.” Israel essentially abandoned its demand that they be put in jail, signaling that it had faith in Palestinian security chief Muhammad Dahlan. But that deal was being finalized when the bus exploded in Jerusalem and all contacts have ceased.

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San Diego, Calif.: This might be simplistic, but, given the great quality of Israel’s intelligence and military operation, why does it seem relatively easy for bombers to penetrate to the heart of Israel’s major centers?

Janine Zacharia: Israel does indeed thwart dozens of attacks. Yesterday alone there were 32 warnings alone of planned attacks. But since Israel does not have a defensible border, even with tons of checkpoints strewn throughout the West Bank, it is still possible to reach the cities with a bit of creativity. This is what led to the idea of constructing a security barrier. But even that is not expected to stop attacks completely.

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Washington, D.C.: Doesn’t the extrajudicial assassination of a Islamic Jihad official constitute a breach of the cease-fire agreement?

Janine Zacharia: The cease-fire agreement was not an agreement between Islamic Jihad/Hamas and Israel. It was essentially between the organizations and the Palestinian Authority. Islamic Jihad and Hamas tried to condition the cease-fire on an Israeli pledge to halt assassinations but Israel never agreed to this.

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Washington, D.C.: Ms. Zacharia, thanks for taking our questions. I cannot for the life of me understand why Israel doesn’t just get out of the occupied territories. Everyone says they need to go — most Israelis want to go — what gives? Doesn’t everyone win if Israel complies with UN resolutions?

Janine Zacharia: Israel showed in the 2000 negotiations under Ehud Barak that it would be ready to dismantle most settlements and get out of the West Bank. The Palestinians say the offer was inadequate. Some in Israel have advocated what’s known a unilateral pullback from the West Bank as Israel did in Lebanon in May 2000. But there are more than 250,000 Israelis living in settlements throughout the West Bank and a decision to dismantle settlements, while advocated by many, would be very difficult politically for PM Sharon, who after all, was instrumental in the settlement movement.

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College Park, Md.: Janine — Do you believe Sharon has the political courage to upset the State Department and some elements of the Bush Administration with an appropriate military response to dismantle the terrorists?

Janine Zacharia: It depends what you mean by appropriate. Sharon values his relationship with President Bush and does not want to pick a fight with Washington. He has already signaled for example a willingness to adjust the route of the security barrier after Washington said it was “snaking” too deeply through the West Bank. Sharon knows that Washington would be upset by an all-out Israeli military offensive. But it’s not clear that Sharon himself wants that either. He does not want to be blamed for derailing the peace process.

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Annandale, Va.: After years of bombings and retaliatory strikes, aren’t the civilians on both sides getting tired of it all?

Janine Zacharia: Yes.

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Washington, D.C.: If Abbas is committed to dismantling terror groups, why doesn’t he welcome the Israeli Defense Force as an ally in fighting the terrorism,since — according to him — he can’t do it himself?

Janine Zacharia: Until Tuesday’s bombing this did start happening quietly, through talks between PA security chief Dahlan and Israeli Def Minister Mofaz. There is an exchange of information there. But the days of joint patrols are very 90s. The main answer to your question though is politics: if Abbas is perceived as too close an ally of the Israelis his credibility with the Palestinian street could deteriorate. On the other hand, if the sides cooperated and fought terror together, Israel might be more willing to ease closures, etc., and make life easier for the Palestinians, and thus boost his popularity.

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Arlington, Va.: The Palestinians say that the Israelis broke the truce first by killing a leader from Jihad in Hebron. Is that true? In the road map was there an exact time for the start of the truce where neither side should have killed anyone? This is very sad but it seems there is a cycle of killing that somehow needs to stop. Any ideas on how it can be done?

Janine Zacharia: The truce was negotiated separate from the road map, which is a peace plan drafted by the U.S., EU, Russia and the UN.

As part of phase one of the road map, Israel was supposed to “take no actions undermining trust,” a euphemism for targeted killings.

Israel says since the Palestinians were not fulfilling their commitments in phase one, including confiscating weapons, and undertaking visible efforts to arrest and disrupt groups planning violent attacks, it took steps to try to thwart attacks.

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Raleigh, N.C.: Does the fact that mostly all Orthodox Jews were killed in the recent attack intensify pressure from the right wing parties on Sharon to abandon the road map, expel Arafat, and dismantle the P.A?

Janine Zacharia: Hi Raleigh. No I do not believe so. Any type of suicide bombing of this magnitude leads to that kind of pressure.

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London, U.K.: What has become of the infamous 14 points that the Sharon government had for accepting the roadmap? It does not appear that Sharon is still pushing these points.

Janine Zacharia: He isn’t because they have barely scratched the surface of the road map. Until they can get past the initial security phase, many of the Israeli points will be put on the back burner.

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Washington, D.C.: How come there are no Israeli suicide bombers but thousands of Palestinian suicide bombers?

Janine Zacharia: Because Palestinian suicide bombers are fed a steady dose of a radical, extremist interpretation of Islam that teaches them they will become martyrs if they blow themselves up and kill Israelis.

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Detroit, Mich.: Has Sharon’s relationship with Bush deteriorated since the Iraq war? What are the ramifications of this, if it is so?